Big Plays Rule
November 14, 2007 

The emergence of deep threat WRs in accomplished passing offenses, such as what happened last week with the Bengals’ Chris Henry and Seahawks’ DJ Hackett, demonstrated to us just how important it is to track these comings and goings, both before the season, and, as we saw, the mid-season as well.  If you’re looking for a late-season fantasy boost, read on. 

The list of top big play (20+ yds) passing offenses for 2007 so far should help you zero in on where your team should be receiver-wise: 

2007 Rank         Club                  (2006 Rank)
1^st                     DAL                  (5^th)
2^nd                    NE                    (12^th)
3^rd                     CIN                   (6^th)
4^th                     CLE                  (29^th)
5^th                     IND                   (6^th)
6^th                     GB                   (10^th) 

Even without a solid #2 WR option, DAL and CLE are fantasy gold.  In the next few weeks, I suggest that you should watch these clubs for the potential emergence of a true deep threat, much like with Henry (actually a #3 WR in that offense) and Hackett.  Of course, DAL’s Terry Glenn may one week actually come back.  It will be interesting to see what those two clubs do in the off-season to bolster this area.  Also on the watch list is IND, with stalwart WR Harrison showing his age, and top pick rookie WR Gonzalez –now a finger ?!? -- still trying to prove he belongs at the pro level. 

As you can see, NE’s additions at WR this year are apparent, as was new OCs in CLE and GB.  The maturation of DAL’s QB and the rejuvenation of GB’s QB seem to explain the others.  These management interventions proved successful, unlike MIA or SD or CHI this year. 

As we get deeper into FFTOC lists and tighter waiver lists, potential shoot outs have greater meaning to the contending fantasy player. If you consider the following list of clubs with the greatest number of passing big plays against, 

2007 Rank         Club
1^st                     CLE
2^nd                    NO
3^rd                     JAC
4^th                     BAL
5^th                     BUF
6^th                     CIN 

it is striking how odds makers have apparently incorporated this aspect in their top match ups going forward. 

Week 11 Shootouts: 

Match up:         NYG @ DET
The media cat-and-mouse games apparently are beginning, with the Giants apparently coming clean and attributing WR Burress’ recent decline in production to a nagging wheel injury, like its some surprise, right?  WR Toomer is getting slightly more pass targets recently, so maybe something’s up.  Gets one thinking, I guess.  Lions HC says QB Kitna’s back is sore, Kitna says no.  Huh?  Lions’ WR McDonald is trending nicely again, while rookie Johnson keeps landing on the same sore spot apparently.  What’s with these rookie WRs anyway?  Keep an eye on him, and Furrey, for later this season, folks.  Oddsmakers REALLY like this one for high scoring, even though neither club makes our top-6 lists.  We like this one too, because NYG’s defense hadn’t played a decent O til last week, and Martz madness will expose them further.

Match up:         ARI @ CIN
CIN, one of two clubs that makes both lists, makes us drool.  If you’re in a league that hasn’t picked up Henry yet, kindly make your move.  ARI’s former-Steeler coaches clearly know how to gouge CIN’s poor D.  As long as Warner stays upright, we’re in the we-don’t-care, its-through-the-air mindset for both teams.  As if you’re actually considering benching any one here.  Here’s hoping that the better-than-average Ks don’t play a role here. 

Match up:         NO @ HOU
The only other match up with clubs not in our top-6, but in a shoot out any way.  We absolutely love this game, with Schaub and AJ coming back.  So, how does this affect Walter’s looks?  Not good, we suspect.  You think NO’s regretting its decision to go into the season with WR Henderson as its big play guy, or HOU’s decision to trust aging RB Green?  Watch the off-season moves in these areas, guys, because both O’s rock.  Are we the only ones who get the impression the league’s got a thing about trying to punk Bush a little?  Too bad they don’t have enforcers like they do in hockey.  Reggie sure does need one. 

Match up:         WAS @ DAL
This is one we don’t like.  Most of the time, we like to “FFTOC” those opposing WRs to DAL, but not here…James Thrash????  A gimpy Moss???  You think DAL is afraid of QB Campbell making a big play on them?  One gets the feeling that DAL will be happy not showing any thing in their play book, except for maybe Crayton because stud S Taylor is out, and with WAS trying to shorten the game, we have a boring one, save the rivalry angle.  

Match up:         NE @ BUF
Given that NE is averaging close to 40 points per game themselves, I guess we have the one-team shootout.  What a division for NE this year…MIA, BUF and NYJ. All three with new QB’s next year?  Hope you got what you could out of Welker, guys, because he’s soon going to disappear.  Hello, Mr. Stallworth, big play guy, for the play off run.  All to plan.  You noticed that BUF’s in the top-against list, didn’t you? 

Match up:         CLE @ BAL
BAL’s on that list, too.  With no healthy corners, CLE will go after them, hard.  The only intrigue here is whether QB Boller gets your toes tingling enough to start BAL’s WRs.  This game makes it three in a row for BAL to match up offensively with an opposing pass attack, and in the last two, they’ve failed miserably.  If you haven’t FFTOC’d Mason yet, I guess here’s your chance.  Not real convinced that supposed-to-be-big-play Clayton is real, though.  But, CLE leads the top-against list, you know what I mean?  How many practice reps do they need to make a few pass plays in a game??